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Post by alcasinoroyale on Feb 26, 2017 12:31:19 GMT -5
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Post by Diablotion on Feb 26, 2017 13:11:40 GMT -5
I was about to create a thread talking about the situation in the North during ADWD and TWOW, but alas I was slow! This is by far my favorite topic of ADWD and TWOW, so beware! The Northern plotline in ADWD was by far my favorite and it had plenty of interesting details in it. I don't even know where to start. I'm a bit disappointed that D&D weren't ambitious enough and decided to massively oversimplify the plot on the show. The North forgot. I think that Wyman's plotting would have translated brilliantly to TV. But enough of the show, we all know what happened in the North in S6, but now, how will the events in the book plan out? I have to disagree with him about LSH. Alt Shift says that she could be reasoned with and she could start supporting Jon when she hears the truth about his parentage. I don't think this is the case. Catelyn was always a very emotional and illogical character and LSH is very similar. "She" can't be reasoned with, she's borderline human. I can imagine her goal is to avenge her family and possibly help Sansa or something like that. The location and actions of Tom of Sevenstreams hint at a possible BwB attack on the Twins. We know that he has leaked information about travelling Freys to the BwB. Perhaps a Red Wedding 2.0? Death of Walder Frey? Perhaps. The Freys have very valuable prisoners at the Twins, and do I remember correctly, but did Jaime command the Freys to send every single prisoner to Casterly Rock or was this only a show thing? This prisoner transfer would give the BwB a perfect opportunity to ambush and free some prisoners. We also know that the Blackfish is free and sworn to protect his Queen, Jeyne Westerling, who is currently in Lannister hands. I can see the Blackfish and other Tully loyalists trying to free her. I'm very uncertain about some details of the GNC, but I'm certain that the Greatjon will escape. Their bloody sigil is a giant breaking free. This takes us forward to the other Umbers. We know that 2 Umbers are active at the moment, Mors "Crowfood" Umber who has sided with Stannis, he has a few hundred young boys, who were last seen digging holes just outside Winterfell. In Winterfell we have the other Umber uncle, Hother "Whoresbane" Umber. Roose doesn't trust Whoresbane and thinks that he will turn his cloak as soon as possible. Also the fact that Whoresbane has the old men, could indicate that he's on a suicide mission. I do believe that Hother will turn on the Boltons, when the right opportunity presents itself. This could be when news of the Greatjon's escape reaches him. I agree with AltShiftX that all those plots are not combined together, but are separate plots and conspiracies, but they all have the same goal: A Stark in Winterfell. They may wary on having a Stark as a King or only as the Warden of the North.
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Post by Lady Sansa's Direwolf on Feb 26, 2017 14:05:00 GMT -5
The LSH portion doesn't ring true with me either, though I do love having all the various parts in one place to ponder. Lady Stoneheart has one priority, protecting the remains of her family and punishing the Freys, Lannisters, and any one else who was a part of the Red Wedding. Her capacity for forgiveness, at least at this point, is gone. Finding out the truth concerning Jon's parentage might have gone a long way with human Catelyn but is that capacity still within her?
I also was terribly disappointed that the show chose to skip the Manderly Conspiracy. The possibility of converging plots to overthrow the Boltons is exciting and more what I expected in some form. Having Jon and Sansa take on the Boltons with only three or four houses was a slap in the face to all Northerners. As mentioned, thousands of years of Stark rule in the North would never be dismissed that lightly by a kingdom that prides themselves on loyalty and honor. Picturing this play out at Winterfell might be enough to entertain my imagination until the premiere.
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Post by wizzthesmith on Feb 26, 2017 17:17:09 GMT -5
The Freys have very valuable prisoners at the Twins, and do I remember correctly, but did Jaime command the Freys to send every single prisoner to Casterly Rock or was this only a show thing? This prisoner transfer would give the BwB a perfect opportunity to ambush and free some prisoners. We also know that the Blackfish is free and sworn to protect his Queen, Jeyne Westerling, who is currently in Lannister hands. I can see the Blackfish and other Tully loyalists trying to free her. I'm very uncertain about some details of the GNC, but I'm certain that the Greatjon will escape. Hi Hoarfrost. Nice summary of the prisoner situation in the Riverland's, and I agree the Blackfish and co will likely free Jeyne and Edmure. The BWB really do have most bases covered and I would go a little further and say that they actually set up the release of the prisoners, and under 'their terms'. The RL's section of the GNC covers some of this and I did some research off the back of reading that, namely on Houses Piper & Vance. I will try to summarise what I mean.. Arya's journey through the Riverland's is important for BWB evidence [and not the waste of time a lot of the fandom think] because of the Houses/places they visit and informants we are told about. Those are.... - Arya + BWB meet Lord Lychester : '' Lord Lychester's songs died in Robert's rebellion. '' [ Arya IV , ASOS ] - When they meet the Lady of the Leaves, Jack-be-Lucky is also with her, and claims he is from Piper lands. '' My father got himself good and hanged by Lord Piper's bailiff '' [ Arya IV, ASOS ] - When at Acorn Hall, they met Lady Smallwood. '' Lady Smallwood welcomed the outlaws kindly enough '' [ Arya IV, ASOS ] - They then visit the Stoney Sept which is a whore house, they talk freely with the prostitutes there. - Next is the Hound's trial. He is accused of killing people from houses Roote, Charlton and Bracken. These Houses seem to be important to the BWB. The Hound of course refutes these claims. - They then meet with a guy called Notch, from Goodbrook's village. '' Notch was a stooped man, born in these parts. This was Lord Goodbrook's village '' [ Arya VIII, ASOS ] - Importantly the BWB has also been in contact with the Vance Maester. '' Lord Vance's Maester will know more. '' [ Arya VIII, ASOS ] So venues and families noted are : Lychester, Vance, Roote, Goodbrook, Smallwood, Piper, Bracken and Charlton. [And the Stoney Sept] This journey has a huge pay off in AFFC at the siege of Riverun when Jaime arrives. The Brackens are fighting the Blackwood's, so that accounts for them, the one missing is House Charlton, who are sworn to the Frey's, and probably with their retinue as nicely placed insiders. The Stoney Sept link is that the camp outside Riverun is full of prostitutes who are serving as BWB spies, 80-90% of the Houses at RR are in cahoots with the Brotherhood. They also have signal fires and Tom 'o' Sevens on the inside to name but a few schemes. Awesome writing. [If not stretched out over many, many years] PIPER & VANCEThese two Houses in particular are important and have been constantly helping the BWB since AGOT and Ned telling them they could not join Beric and co. Every time the BWB attack we read of 'Piper and Vance' causing problems behind, it's often subtle but consistent. They are on various war councils and attend Hoster Tulley's funeral [Much scheming done there for sure, the River lords all in the same place for a short time] but most importantly for the scheming of the prisoner's release they are on Jaime's war council at the siege of Riverun. I think Piper & Vance have been manipulating Jaime and his decision making. It was Clement Piper who is instrumental in Jaime's decision to have the prisoners released [His son Marq is held captive] He seems to initiate a fight with the Frey's on purpose and in front of Jaime, having made a rude gesture towards Edwyn Frey in full view of Jaime we get.... Having stirred the pot regards the prisoners, Edwyn replies... This argument seems to inspire Jaime's decision a short time later to have the prisoners released and sent to Kings Landing. His decision may be to spite the Frey's as well, again clever from Piper....
We know Piper & Vance are BWB informants...so the BWB are going to know everything. Numbers, who's leading the garrison, whether they take the Kings Road [Likely] etc... Just as they will know everything about Jeyne and Edmure's party. But could they make the plan even better? Short answer, yes. Once the castle is relinquished and Jaime seems happy with proceedings, [Edmure seemed happy as well if you remember, plans afoot] the Houses/camps are told to pack up and start going home. This of course weakens Jaime's/Lannister/Frey's position considerably thinking they've already won.
Jump in House Vance to really make sure the path is clear for 'Project prisoner break out'....
Now they have a clear plan with the BWB about taking back power in the RL's, what better situation than to get rid of the main threat they face in Jaime. The Riverlords are going home [those mentioned earlier will be close by I reckon, ready to help] and now Vance has manipulated Jaime into visiting Raventree. This enables them and the BWB to know his exact whereabouts and travel schedule, not only that Jaime travelled with a weaker retinue than he would have normally. Perfect! So it was no surprise that Brienne seemed to ride in from nowhere, seemingly knowing exactly where Jaime would be. It was planned. The Vance master could've been the final informant, or one of the whores, anyone really, take your pick. But this plan is running like clockwork up to this point. I predict a BWB/Blackfish/smallfolk shitstorm in Winds, taking back what is theirs. They'll have to hurry up though, the snows are coming, seems perfect timing. The TWOW prologue will hopefully answer a few of these questions. [Sorry if I waffled on, I love everything Riverland's]
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Post by wizzthesmith on Feb 26, 2017 17:49:16 GMT -5
Here is a link to the Riverlands section of the GNC written by ladygwynhyfvar of Radio Westeros, you may recognise some of the research. I also hope to have added a little depth with the Piper & Vance angle and quotes. The link directs you to her website which is absolutely worth a read if you haven't before, highly recommended!!
This is the first essay I read that inspired me to go and do my own 'close reading' and researching of the text. For that I am most grateful, thanks ladygwynhyfvar .
ladygwynhyfvar.wordpress.com/2013/08/24/gnc/
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Post by Diablotion on Feb 27, 2017 3:57:36 GMT -5
The LSH portion doesn't ring true with me either, though I do love having all the various parts in one place to ponder. Lady Stoneheart has one priority, protecting the remains of her family and punishing the Freys, Lannisters, and any one else who was a part of the Red Wedding. Her capacity for forgiveness, at least at this point, is gone. Finding out the truth concerning Jon's parentage might have gone a long way with human Catelyn but is that capacity still within her? I also was terribly disappointed that the show chose to skip the Manderly Conspiracy. The possibility of converging plots to overthrow the Boltons is exciting and more what I expected in some form. Having Jon and Sansa take on the Boltons with only three or four houses was a slap in the face to all Northerners. As mentioned, thousands of years of Stark rule in the North would never be dismissed that lightly by a kingdom that prides themselves on loyalty and honor. Picturing this play out at Winterfell might be enough to entertain my imagination until the premiere. That's true, accepting Jon would have been extremely hard for human Catelyn, no chance it's going to happen with LSH. The "show GNC" started out promisingly with this scene. We are introduced to quite a few houses and it looked liked they were actually going to bother to try and get them to fight for them. They visited 2 places and decided to give up? Surely Davos or Sansa could have gone to White Harbor? They say that house Manderly is the biggest house that hasn't chosen a side yet, surely it would be common sense to even try to persuade them? The North forgot on the show. Sad as it is. The Freys have very valuable prisoners at the Twins, and do I remember correctly, but did Jaime command the Freys to send every single prisoner to Casterly Rock or was this only a show thing? This prisoner transfer would give the BwB a perfect opportunity to ambush and free some prisoners. We also know that the Blackfish is free and sworn to protect his Queen, Jeyne Westerling, who is currently in Lannister hands. I can see the Blackfish and other Tully loyalists trying to free her. I'm very uncertain about some details of the GNC, but I'm certain that the Greatjon will escape. Hi Hoarfrost. Nice summary of the prisoner situation in the Riverland's, and I agree the Blackfish and co will likely free Jeyne and Edmure. The BWB really do have most bases covered and I would go a little further and say that they actually set up the release of the prisoners, and under 'their terms'. The RL's section of the GNC covers some of this and I did some research off the back of reading that, namely on Houses Piper & Vance. I will try to summarise what I mean.. Arya's journey through the Riverland's is important for BWB evidence [and not the waste of time a lot of the fandom think] because of the Houses/places they visit and informants we are told about. Those are.... - Arya + BWB meet Lord Lychester : '' Lord Lychester's songs died in Robert's rebellion. '' [ Arya IV , ASOS ] - When they meet the Lady of the Leaves, Jack-be-Lucky is also with her, and claims he is from Piper lands. '' My father got himself good and hanged by Lord Piper's bailiff '' [ Arya IV, ASOS ] - When at Acorn Hall, they met Lady Smallwood. '' Lady Smallwood welcomed the outlaws kindly enough '' [ Arya IV, ASOS ] - They then visit the Stoney Sept which is a whore house, they talk freely with the prostitutes there. - Next is the Hound's trial. He is accused of killing people from houses Roote, Charlton and Bracken. These Houses seem to be important to the BWB. The Hound of course refutes these claims. - They then meet with a guy called Notch, from Goodbrook's village. '' Notch was a stooped man, born in these parts. This was Lord Goodbrook's village '' [ Arya VIII, ASOS ] - Importantly the BWB has also been in contact with the Vance Maester. '' Lord Vance's Maester will know more. '' [ Arya VIII, ASOS ] So venues and families noted are : Lychester, Vance, Roote, Goodbrook, Smallwood, Piper, Bracken and Charlton. [And the Stoney Sept] This journey has a huge pay off in AFFC at the siege of Riverun when Jaime arrives. The Brackens are fighting the Blackwood's, so that accounts for them, the one missing is House Charlton, who are sworn to the Frey's, and probably with their retinue as nicely placed insiders. The Stoney Sept link is that the camp outside Riverun is full of prostitutes who are serving as BWB spies, 80-90% of the Houses at RR are in cahoots with the Brotherhood. They also have signal fires and Tom 'o' Sevens on the inside to name but a few schemes. Awesome writing. [If not stretched out over many, many years] PIPER & VANCEThese two Houses in particular are important and have been constantly helping the BWB since AGOT and Ned telling them they could not join Beric and co. Every time the BWB attack we read of 'Piper and Vance' causing problems behind, it's often subtle but consistent. They are on various war councils and attend Hoster Tulley's funeral [Much scheming done there for sure, the River lords all in the same place for a short time] but most importantly for the scheming of the prisoner's release they are on Jaime's war council at the siege of Riverun. I think Piper & Vance have been manipulating Jaime and his decision making. It was Clement Piper who is instrumental in Jaime's decision to have the prisoners released [His son Marq is held captive] He seems to initiate a fight with the Frey's on purpose and in front of Jaime, having made a rude gesture towards Edwyn Frey in full view of Jaime we get.... Having stirred the pot regards the prisoners, Edwyn replies... This argument seems to inspire Jaime's decision a short time later to have the prisoners released and sent to Kings Landing. His decision may be to spite the Frey's as well, again clever from Piper....
We know Piper & Vance are BWB informants...so the BWB are going to know everything. Numbers, who's leading the garrison, whether they take the Kings Road [Likely] etc... Just as they will know everything about Jeyne and Edmure's party. But could they make the plan even better? Short answer, yes. Once the castle is relinquished and Jaime seems happy with proceedings, [Edmure seemed happy as well if you remember, plans afoot] the Houses/camps are told to pack up and start going home. This of course weakens Jaime's/Lannister/Frey's position considerably thinking they've already won.
Jump in House Vance to really make sure the path is clear for 'Project prisoner break out'....
Now they have a clear plan with the BWB about taking back power in the RL's, what better situation than to get rid of the main threat they face in Jaime. The Riverlords are going home [those mentioned earlier will be close by I reckon, ready to help] and now Vance has manipulated Jaime into visiting Raventree. This enables them and the BWB to know his exact whereabouts and travel schedule, not only that Jaime travelled with a weaker retinue than he would have normally. Perfect! So it was no surprise that Brienne seemed to ride in from nowhere, seemingly knowing exactly where Jaime would be. It was planned. The Vance master could've been the final informant, or one of the whores, anyone really, take your pick. But this plan is running like clockwork up to this point. I predict a BWB/Blackfish/smallfolk shitstorm in Winds, taking back what is theirs. They'll have to hurry up though, the snows are coming, seems perfect timing. The TWOW prologue will hopefully answer a few of these questions. [Sorry if I waffled on, I love everything Riverland's] Glad to have you joining us! Great analysis, as always! I didn't even realize that Piper and Vance were working with the BwB, when it was kinda obvious. Jaime being played by Piper and Vance is quite subtle,so well done! Now that Jaime is falling into a trap, do you think the BwB will kill him? Can we already start hyping the Project prisoner breakout™? I'd love to see a massive ambush where all the prisoners get set free. But knowing GRRM's style, I believe that this ambush goes terribly wrong and some of the prisoners die, and maybe the Lannisters and Freys will get away with the main prisoners. Otherwise it would be too easy. There are so many master plans in motion, Doran, Wyman, the BwB, most of these must fail, surely? How many fighting men does the Brotherhood have? Enough to challenge the Freys and Lannisters protecting the prisoners? Do you think we'll have a Red Wedding 2.0? What is LSH's and the BwB's end game? The fact that the GNC reaches out to the RL and is as complex there, than it is in the North, is incredible writing from GRRM.
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Post by Lady Sansa's Direwolf on Feb 27, 2017 10:45:06 GMT -5
See, this is the treatment I expected from the show. That's what I get for believing television could ever do true service to Martin's world. The underground network operating through the Riverlands along with a few well placed lines of dialog and the GNC could have taken place. They still wouldn't have needed LSH but it would have gone a long way for those of us who looked at the botched Riverlands campaign and said huh.
In TWoW I hope that we get more of this underground, but I fear Stannis will not be the commander they wish to rally about. If we put Davos in Skagos searching for Rickon, will this be the moment when Ramsey takes his 20 good men into Stannis' camp? When Mel resurrects Jon Snow, will he join Stannis' campaign or remain at Castle Black until Stannis is crushed? Will Littlefinger hear about the GNC and decide to bring Sansa and the Knights of the Vale to the North in attempt to seize the North for himself?
It is will be nice to see Martin's outcome after what we got instead.
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Post by Diablotion on Feb 28, 2017 2:48:35 GMT -5
See, this is the treatment I expected from the show. That's what I get for believing television could ever do true service to Martin's world. The underground network operating through the Riverlands along with a few well placed lines of dialog and the GNC could have taken place. They still wouldn't have needed LSH but it would have gone a long way for those of us who looked at the botched Riverlands campaign and said huh. In TWoW I hope that we get more of this underground, but I fear Stannis will not be the commander they wish to rally about. If we put Davos in Skagos searching for Rickon, will this be the moment when Ramsey takes his 20 good men into Stannis' camp? When Mel resurrects Jon Snow, will he join Stannis' campaign or remain at Castle Black until Stannis is crushed? Will Littlefinger hear about the GNC and decide to bring Sansa and the Knights of the Vale to the North in attempt to seize the North for himself? It is will be nice to see Martin's outcome after what we got instead. Very true. But translating this all to TV sounds impossible. But having Wyman scheming in the North and for example giving a bigger role for Blackfish would have been suitable. At the very least, Blackfish should have escaped. I'm not sure how the battle of the Ice will end in TWOW. ShowJon took a lot of Stannis's book story line on his own march to WF. Like @roose suggested, there will be no bastardbowl in the books. Just this battle. Stannis will (most likely) win, get betrayed by the Northmen, then he'll retreat to the Wall and die fighting against the WW. Oh, and he'll sacrifice Shireen. Jon is resurrected and he goes to WF and is named King over Sansa, because of Robb's Will. Whatever happens, the battle is going to be epic and not so simple as on the show. What do you guys think, who will win?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2017 13:16:31 GMT -5
See, this is the treatment I expected from the show. That's what I get for believing television could ever do true service to Martin's world. The underground network operating through the Riverlands along with a few well placed lines of dialog and the GNC could have taken place. They still wouldn't have needed LSH but it would have gone a long way for those of us who looked at the botched Riverlands campaign and said huh. In TWoW I hope that we get more of this underground, but I fear Stannis will not be the commander they wish to rally about. If we put Davos in Skagos searching for Rickon, will this be the moment when Ramsey takes his 20 good men into Stannis' camp? When Mel resurrects Jon Snow, will he join Stannis' campaign or remain at Castle Black until Stannis is crushed? Will Littlefinger hear about the GNC and decide to bring Sansa and the Knights of the Vale to the North in attempt to seize the North for himself? It is will be nice to see Martin's outcome after what we got instead. Very true. But translating this all to TV sounds impossible. But having Wyman scheming in the North and for example giving a bigger role for Blackfish would have been suitable. At the very least, Blackfish should have escaped. I'm not sure how the battle of the Ice will end in TWOW. ShowJon took a lot of Stannis's book story line on his own march to WF. Like @roose suggested, there will be no bastardbowl in the books. Just this battle. Stannis will (most likely) win, get betrayed by the Northmen, then he'll retreat to the Wall and die fighting against the WW. Oh, and he'll sacrifice Shireen. Jon is resurrected and he goes to WF and is named King over Sansa, because of Robb's Will. Whatever happens, the battle is going to be epic and not so simple as on the show. What do you guys think, who will win? Stannis wins, one of the Boltons dies and the other one escapes to the Dreadfort.
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Post by Lady Sansa's Direwolf on Feb 28, 2017 16:21:56 GMT -5
Very true. But translating this all to TV sounds impossible. But having Wyman scheming in the North and for example giving a bigger role for Blackfish would have been suitable. At the very least, Blackfish should have escaped. I'm not sure how the battle of the Ice will end in TWOW. ShowJon took a lot of Stannis's book story line on his own march to WF. Like @roose suggested, there will be no bastardbowl in the books. Just this battle. Stannis will (most likely) win, get betrayed by the Northmen, then he'll retreat to the Wall and die fighting against the WW. Oh, and he'll sacrifice Shireen. Jon is resurrected and he goes to WF and is named King over Sansa, because of Robb's Will. Whatever happens, the battle is going to be epic and not so simple as on the show. What do you guys think, who will win? Stannis wins, one of the Boltons dies and the other one escapes to the Dreadfort. No, I think Ramsey will still be the death of Daddy. I think Roose defeats Stannis, Ramsey kills Roose, Shireen is burned, Jon is resurrected, Stannis is killed by someone. Stannis lost because he lost his horses, his supplies, and his men's respect. Right now in the books we don't have those conditions but once Winds is released this will certainly change.
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Post by wizzthesmith on Feb 28, 2017 18:56:09 GMT -5
Glad to have you joining us! Great analysis, as always! I didn't even realize that Piper and Vance were working with the BwB, when it was kinda obvious. Jaime being played by Piper and Vance is quite subtle,so well done! Now that Jaime is falling into a trap, do you think the BwB will kill him? Can we already start hyping the Project prisoner breakout™? I'd love to see a massive ambush where all the prisoners get set free. But knowing GRRM's style, I believe that this ambush goes terribly wrong and some of the prisoners die, and maybe the Lannisters and Freys will get away with the main prisoners. Otherwise it would be too easy. There are so many master plans in motion, Doran, Wyman, the BwB, most of these must fail, surely? How many fighting men does the Brotherhood have? Enough to challenge the Freys and Lannisters protecting the prisoners? Do you think we'll have a Red Wedding 2.0? What is LSH's and the BwB's end game? The fact that the GNC reaches out to the RL and is as complex there, than it is in the North, is incredible writing from GRRM.
Hey Diablotion , thanks I'm glad to be here. I love Westeros.org for brainstorming and analysis but I don't have time to keep up with their fast pace and fall behind. I'm pleased you liked it anyway.
I missed Piper & Vance first time as well, it was only after reading the Riverland’s section of the GNC that I decided to look up every mention of them in chronological order, and suddenly things became clearer. They have become my favourite minor characters. I see you have many of the same questions we at the Riverland’s Web over at Westeros did. Obviously everything is speculative at this point but the information above may give us some clues so let’s have a go...
Will the BWB kill Jaime? It’s definitely an option, LSH will want him dead I’m sure…
But I personally think Jaime will be okay. Having lured him into a vulnerable situation they could’ve killed him straight away but chose to send Brienne and lure him even further by committing him to travel with her alone. Perhaps LSH wants to kill him herself? Perhaps they want to give him a trial? Maybe they want to bargain with him? I feel it’s in their best interests to use him as a political tool. They have a bit of time as Brienne said she has found Sansa, so that’s the information the Lannister camp will have. If Jaime dies/goes missing for too long then the guerrilla style warfare the Riverlander’s have been using is thrown out as the Lannister’s will ravage the area looking for him, all plans will be in chaos. With some co-operation from Jaime their plans would still be on and with less chance of ‘all out’ war/fighting. [Which they would probably lose] There could be a trial by combat or some sort of sacrifice from Brienne, but ultimately I see Jaime coming out of this. What does everyone else think?
Can we hype Project Prisoner Breakout? I’d say with all the clues we have been given, definitely yes.
However, I think it’s important they keep to their guerrilla style ‘ambush’ tactics. They have the info to make good judgment calls on how many men they need send, and where would be best to strike. Jeyne and Edmure’s party for example will pass The Golden Tooth, and we know there is a secret passageway they could use as cover in an ambush situation as Robb and Grey Wind used it earlier in the books. They’ll have to be really careful/clever though as Forley Prestor was given instructions to kill Jeyne first then Edmure if an escape was attempted. The Golden Tooth is near the border to the Riverland’s, so a perfect place to attack then melt away into the woods/RL’s.
The BWB are said to have hundreds of men in ASOS I think it was, and since then we have all the Houses ready to help [send plain clothed men, no banners] and there are also all those Darry men that are apparently just wandering about the Riverland’s, seems likely they’ve had contact with the Brotherhood, the remaining northeners etc. I fully expect the other half of the BWB that split after losing Beric to still be fighting his wars as well, where else would they go? Edric could go home, but the rest were extremely committed to Beric, I feel they probably left the LSH crew to killing Frey’s while they went off and secured some of the hard work Beric had put in with the Riverlords, maybe hooked up with Blackfish etc.
The prisoner’s from the Twins will most likely be accompanied by a shit load of Frey’s on their travels, this seems like too good an opportunity to turn down. Free the prisoners, and kill a load of Frey’s at the same time. Although this is my preferred choice, it must be pointed out that they may just pay the ransom required, but that’s boring and seems to go against the scheming in the Riverland’s thus far.
Red Wedding 2.0? For this to happen [and I like the idea a lot] the Riverlords would have to be seen as innocent still [in other words it’s just those pesky BWB again] to get an invite. So there is still a lot of politicking to be done, this is where I think having Jaime on board/working for them, may be key. The apparent end to the siege will have to play out like nothing is wrong. Even though the prisoners are being released, Jaime’s entourage still have squires/wards as hostages in Lew Piper, Hugo Vance and now the bookish Hoster Blackwood. But once they are free [and the breakout hopefully works] the Lannisters hold no more hostages and find themselves in an extremely weak position compared to before.
LSH endgame? I have no idea. Regards her mental state, I think she is showing some emotion/remorse/ambition when stroking the crown, then we see her fleeing foes from Oldstones which is where she and Robb discussed the will. And then they flee into the Neck which is where we as readers know the will was last sent. So yeah, I think she still has Stark/KotN ambitions as well as a blood thirsty revenge mission on the Frey’s. Although I don’t see her lasting very long, maybe the task will fall to Jaime to complete, finally fulfilling his oath in a roundabout way.
I do agree with you that none of this will likely go smoothly [If at all] and we can expect things to go wrong. But with the clues at hand that is kinda how I see it at the moment, although George continues to surprise us, so who knows? Still, hopefully by searching out these clues it gives us a better picture to form educated guesses on how things might go. It certainly has me excited for TWOW, the Riverland’s and GNC is awesome writing and it’s a joy putting all the clues together. Predicting Martin's next moves are proving a harder task.
Thanks Hoarfrost, love this subject.
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Post by Diablotion on Mar 1, 2017 3:51:28 GMT -5
Stannis wins, one of the Boltons dies and the other one escapes to the Dreadfort. No, I think Ramsey will still be the death of Daddy. I think Roose defeats Stannis, Ramsey kills Roose, Shireen is burned, Jon is resurrected, Stannis is killed by someone. Stannis lost because he lost his horses, his supplies, and his men's respect. Right now in the books we don't have those conditions but once Winds is released this will certainly change. ..but how will Ramsay outsmart Roose? Roose is one of the smartest people in Westeros, he knows that Ramsay is dangerous. He won't let his guard down. Poison? So do you think that Stannis flees to the Wall? I can imagine that bookStannis doesn't want to run anymore. He will free Winterfell, or die in attempt. Glad to have you joining us! Great analysis, as always! I didn't even realize that Piper and Vance were working with the BwB, when it was kinda obvious. Jaime being played by Piper and Vance is quite subtle,so well done! Now that Jaime is falling into a trap, do you think the BwB will kill him? Can we already start hyping the Project prisoner breakout™? I'd love to see a massive ambush where all the prisoners get set free. But knowing GRRM's style, I believe that this ambush goes terribly wrong and some of the prisoners die, and maybe the Lannisters and Freys will get away with the main prisoners. Otherwise it would be too easy. There are so many master plans in motion, Doran, Wyman, the BwB, most of these must fail, surely? How many fighting men does the Brotherhood have? Enough to challenge the Freys and Lannisters protecting the prisoners? Do you think we'll have a Red Wedding 2.0? What is LSH's and the BwB's end game? The fact that the GNC reaches out to the RL and is as complex there, than it is in the North, is incredible writing from GRRM.
Hey Diablotion , thanks I'm glad to be here. I love Westeros.org for brainstorming and analysis but I don't have time to keep up with their fast pace and fall behind. I'm pleased you liked it anyway.
I missed Piper & Vance first time as well, it was only after reading the Riverland’s section of the GNC that I decided to look up every mention of them in chronological order, and suddenly things became clearer. They have become my favourite minor characters. I see you have many of the same questions we at the Riverland’s Web over at Westeros did. Obviously everything is speculative at this point but the information above may give us some clues so let’s have a go...
Will the BWB kill Jaime? It’s definitely an option, LSH will want him dead I’m sure…
But I personally think Jaime will be okay. Having lured him into a vulnerable situation they could’ve killed him straight away but chose to send Brienne and lure him even further by committing him to travel with her alone. Perhaps LSH wants to kill him herself? Perhaps they want to give him a trial? Maybe they want to bargain with him? I feel it’s in their best interests to use him as a political tool. They have a bit of time as Brienne said she has found Sansa, so that’s the information the Lannister camp will have. If Jaime dies/goes missing for too long then the guerrilla style warfare the Riverlander’s have been using is thrown out as the Lannister’s will ravage the area looking for him, all plans will be in chaos. With some co-operation from Jaime their plans would still be on and with less chance of ‘all out’ war/fighting. [Which they would probably lose] There could be a trial by combat or some sort of sacrifice from Brienne, but ultimately I see Jaime coming out of this. What does everyone else think?
Can we hype Project Prisoner Breakout? I’d say with all the clues we have been given, definitely yes.
However, I think it’s important they keep to their guerrilla style ‘ambush’ tactics. They have the info to make good judgment calls on how many men they need send, and where would be best to strike. Jeyne and Edmure’s party for example will pass The Golden Tooth, and we know there is a secret passageway they could use as cover in an ambush situation as Robb and Grey Wind used it earlier in the books. They’ll have to be really careful/clever though as Forley Prestor was given instructions to kill Jeyne first then Edmure if an escape was attempted. The Golden Tooth is near the border to the Riverland’s, so a perfect place to attack then melt away into the woods/RL’s.
The BWB are said to have hundreds of men in ASOS I think it was, and since then we have all the Houses ready to help [send plain clothed men, no banners] and there are also all those Darry men that are apparently just wandering about the Riverland’s, seems likely they’ve had contact with the Brotherhood, the remaining northeners etc. I fully expect the other half of the BWB that split after losing Beric to still be fighting his wars as well, where else would they go? Edric could go home, but the rest were extremely committed to Beric, I feel they probably left the LSH crew to killing Frey’s while they went off and secured some of the hard work Beric had put in with the Riverlords, maybe hooked up with Blackfish etc.
The prisoner’s from the Twins will most likely be accompanied by a shit load of Frey’s on their travels, this seems like too good an opportunity to turn down. Free the prisoners, and kill a load of Frey’s at the same time. Although this is my preferred choice, it must be pointed out that they may just pay the ransom required, but that’s boring and seems to go against the scheming in the Riverland’s thus far.
Red Wedding 2.0? For this to happen [and I like the idea a lot] the Riverlords would have to be seen as innocent still [in other words it’s just those pesky BWB again] to get an invite. So there is still a lot of politicking to be done, this is where I think having Jaime on board/working for them, may be key. The apparent end to the siege will have to play out like nothing is wrong. Even though the prisoners are being released, Jaime’s entourage still have squires/wards as hostages in Lew Piper, Hugo Vance and now the bookish Hoster Blackwood. But once they are free [and the breakout hopefully works] the Lannisters hold no more hostages and find themselves in an extremely weak position compared to before.
LSH endgame? I have no idea. Regards her mental state, I think she is showing some emotion/remorse/ambition when stroking the crown, then we see her fleeing foes from Oldstones which is where she and Robb discussed the will. And then they flee into the Neck which is where we as readers know the will was last sent. So yeah, I think she still has Stark/KotN ambitions as well as a blood thirsty revenge mission on the Frey’s. Although I don’t see her lasting very long, maybe the task will fall to Jaime to complete, finally fulfilling his oath in a roundabout way.
I do agree with you that none of this will likely go smoothly [If at all] and we can expect things to go wrong. But with the clues at hand that is kinda how I see it at the moment, although George continues to surprise us, so who knows? Still, hopefully by searching out these clues it gives us a better picture to form educated guesses on how things might go. It certainly has me excited for TWOW, the Riverland’s and GNC is awesome writing and it’s a joy putting all the clues together. Predicting Martin's next moves are proving a harder task.
Thanks Hoarfrost, love this subject.
I liked Piper and Vance earlier, but I had no idea about their scheming. I think Jaime's endgame is to kill Cersei. Your idea of a trial by combat sounds interesting. Brienne would sacrifice herself and this would break Jaime in the long run. This would be tragic, but also great writing, since I don't really see anything special in Brienne's future. She's not going to kill Stannis and she's probably not going to find the Stark girls. She fails tragically and dies. Jaime escapes or then the Lannister forces find and rescue him. How can the BWB use Jaime? As a hostage? A diversion? The Lannisters will be pissed that their commander has disappeared. But we have seen the BWB fighting against the Lannisters before. Who will do the ambush? Will the Blackfish meet LSH and will they co-operating? We know that Blackfish is an expert in scouting and hit and raid situations and he has sworn to protect Jeyne and probably Edmure as well. So I can imagine that he wants to lead this operation. What the Tullys/BWB need to do is to fire a volley of arrows and then their vanguard frees the prisoners and then they melt away into the woods. It should be over within minutes. Your idea about Blackfish leading the separated part of the BWB is good. I don't think the Blackfish would appreciate LSH. Would we have a POW view of the ambush or will we hear of it afterwards? What about the other prisoners (Greatjon, Piper etc.)? Are they still at the Twins or are they in the same convoy? Is GRRM going to spoil us with a RW 2.0 AND a Prisoner breakout ambush? We have a wedding coming up with Daven Lannister. The sad part is, he seems like a decent Lannister. So this would be tragic, but it would suit GRRM's style for the BWB to attack the "wrong" Lannister. Walder Frey is a dead man walking, the question is, how will he die? If we get both, it's likely that at least 1 of these events will be a massive failure. Blackfish and co could all die in a failed ambush. Oh, a meeting between LSH, Howland, Galbart and Maege would be fascinating. So, do you think that Jaime will actually manage to fulfill an oath? I can't wait for TWOW to finally come out so all of our questions can be answered!
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Post by Lady Sansa's Direwolf on Mar 1, 2017 20:09:07 GMT -5
I think the Blackfish will die in TWoW, but I certainly hope it is a better death than what the show gave him. This ambush scenario is more what fits with the character as written. ..but how will Ramsay outsmart Roose? Roose is one of the smartest people in Westeros, he knows that Ramsay is dangerous. He won't let his guard down. Poison? So do you think that Stannis flees to the Wall? I can imagine that bookStannis doesn't want to run anymore. He will free Winterfell, or die in attempt. Roose is smart, and well-versed in underhanded tactics. I think he will lead the attack against Stannis. Ramsey may want the command, but this is Roose's time to win the North. Everyone knows Stannis is a skilled and seasoned warrior, Roose will want to defeat him in full view of the Northern lords, but is this when Stannis falls? I'm not sure. A scattered and divided force could limp back to Castle Black, could join Bolton forces, could join just about anywhere. This rids us of Stannis. Then Ramsey either poisons Roose with the assistance of the Karstarks (who are going to turn after the beheading; I think this is a fact), or stabs him and blames it on the Starks and their conspirators.
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Post by Diablotion on Mar 2, 2017 2:56:49 GMT -5
I think the Blackfish will die in TWoW, but I certainly hope it is a better death than what the show gave him. This ambush scenario is more what fits with the character as written. ..but how will Ramsay outsmart Roose? Roose is one of the smartest people in Westeros, he knows that Ramsay is dangerous. He won't let his guard down. Poison? So do you think that Stannis flees to the Wall? I can imagine that bookStannis doesn't want to run anymore. He will free Winterfell, or die in attempt. Roose is smart, and well-versed in underhanded tactics. I think he will lead the attack against Stannis. Ramsey may want the command, but this is Roose's time to win the North. Everyone knows Stannis is a skilled and seasoned warrior, Roose will want to defeat him in full view of the Northern lords, but is this when Stannis falls? I'm not sure. A scattered and divided force could limp back to Castle Black, could join Bolton forces, could join just about anywhere. This rids us of Stannis. Then Ramsey either poisons Roose with the assistance of the Karstarks (who are going to turn after the beheading; I think this is a fact), or stabs him and blames it on the Starks and their conspirators. Yeah, the Blackfish might die fighting against the Frey/Lannister convoy. There is an attack in place, led by Hosteen Frey and the Manderlys. This cavalry charge will most likely end sourly for the Freys, since the Manderlys might change sides and Stannis has according to some theorists, drilled holes in the lake. Roose wouldn't want to attack Stannis, unless the victory is 100% certain. He'd rather use Winterfell. Ramsay disagrees and wants to attack. Perhaps Roose meets his end before the battle?
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Post by wizzthesmith on Mar 2, 2017 15:44:54 GMT -5
I think Jaime's endgame is to kill Cersei. Your idea of a trial by combat sounds interesting. Brienne would sacrifice herself and this would break Jaime in the long run. This would be tragic, but also great writing, since I don't really see anything special in Brienne's future. She's not going to kill Stannis and she's probably not going to find the Stark girls. She fails tragically and dies. Jaime escapes or then the Lannister forces find and rescue him. How can the BWB use Jaime? As a hostage? A diversion? The Lannisters will be pissed that their commander has disappeared. But we have seen the BWB fighting against the Lannisters before. Yeah I like the trial by combat idea too, it also brings in Oathkeeper and I feel like that sword will have a big impact somehow. Plus like you say it could work well within the narrative, tragic sacrifice leading to hero fulfilling unfinished promises etc... The BWB using Jaime is I think a possibility as the Lannister bannermen haven't gone home yet, and probably won't until Jaime is back or they receive orders to do so. So for plans to be made easier those lot need to get out of the Riverlands, or maybe they all get invited to Red Wedding 2.0? Either way they need Jaime either dead or more likely [imo] on board at some level. Get him to send the troops home and turn a blind eye? Send troops home and help take back Riverland's? Etc...There are many scenarios where his political influence would be useful. As you point out, it would be best not to piss off the Lannister retinue in the RL's. Who will do the ambush? Will the Blackfish meet LSH and will they co-operating? We know that Blackfish is an expert in scouting and hit and raid situations and he has sworn to protect Jeyne and probably Edmure as well. So I can imagine that he wants to lead this operation. What the Tullys/BWB need to do is to fire a volley of arrows and then their vanguard frees the prisoners and then they melt away into the woods. It should be over within minutes. Your idea about Blackfish leading the separated part of the BWB is good. I don't think the Blackfish would appreciate LSH. Would we have a POW view of the ambush or will we hear of it afterwards? What about the other prisoners (Greatjon, Piper etc.)? Are they still at the Twins or are they in the same convoy? We discussed Blackfish meeting LSH and came to the same conclusion as you, better leading the other half of the BWB rather than meet his messed up niece. Plus how hard would that scene be to write? Probably best to avoid it, but you never know. There are two parties to ambush [that's why I suggested paying the ransom on the prisoners from the Twins. Too many ambushes?] Jeyne and Edmure's party are heading west to the Crag/Casterly Rock, and the prisoners from the Twins are heading south east towards Kings Landing and most likely with a load of Frey's in tow. So Blackfish to lead attack on Jeyne/Edmure's party but not sure on the Twin's prisoners, with all those Frey's there it seems LSH's crew would be favourites. Maybe they barter the release of those prisoners without ransom in the meeting? Really there are loads of options. Is GRRM going to spoil us with a RW 2.0 AND a Prisoner breakout ambush? We have a wedding coming up with Daven Lannister. The sad part is, he seems like a decent Lannister. So this would be tragic, but it would suit GRRM's style for the BWB to attack the "wrong" Lannister. Walder Frey is a dead man walking, the question is, how will he die? If we get both, it's likely that at least 1 of these events will be a massive failure. Blackfish and co could all die in a failed ambush. Oh, a meeting between LSH, Howland, Galbart and Maege would be fascinating. So, do you think that Jaime will actually manage to fulfill an oath?
Good question. He has set up a scenario whereby he could give us two ambushes and a Red Wedding 2.0, it all seems too much so over to George I suppose. Please let us have all three Not likely though. There are multiple options however and therefore hope for a Riverland's resurgence in some guise. I agree Devan is caught in the middle, like you suggest typical George, and yes Walder has it coming. Not sure how, maybe the wedding?
We also have a huge wolf pack led by Arya/Nymeria that George said of.............
So that could be another way in to Riverland's [sort of GNC] awesomeness.
Cheers Hoarfrost
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