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Post by nikma on Jun 10, 2018 17:21:23 GMT -5
But I don't think that they will get money this way. That's what I'm talking about.
You are ignoring how expensive those potential spin offs would be. Dance with dragons, Blackfire rebellion, old Valyria,... They can't invest that much money, especially since there is no way that running that many TV shows at the same time won't result in rating decline.
I feel some of you just don't like the premise of Goldman's show and want to push this idea that HBO wants to create 3 100 million TV shows at the same time.
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Post by nikma on Jun 10, 2018 17:30:40 GMT -5
A year or two after the first one airs, even if its a moderate success? One year is not enough. And we don't even know that this new show is going to air every year like GoT did in the past. Westworld model is far more likely IMO. D&D knew they would be able to finish GoT only after the success of S3. I don't know how many seasons Goldman has in mind, but I think it will take several seasons to show that her story is successful enough, that people care about the characters and their arcs. From the premise of the show it sounds it will be even bigger in scale than GoT. That's a lot of money. HBO won't gamble with this.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 10, 2018 18:04:03 GMT -5
But I don't think that they will get money this way. That's what I'm talking about. You are ignoring how expensive those potential spin offs would be. Dance with dragons, Blackfire rebellion, old Valyria,... They can't invest that much money, especially since there is no way that running that many TV shows at the same time won't result in rating decline. I feel some of you just don't like the premise of Goldman's show and want to push this idea that HBO wants to create 3 100 million TV shows at the same time. I'm ok with the Age of Heroes spin off. I think it's smart, have the Stark name, but set in a time removed from the current era so its not bogged down by history. A potential draw back could be audiences will have seen how the white walker story ended, long night prequel is a gamble. But getting to see the beginnings of houses Stark and Lannister? Personally that would be awesome. If doesn't live up to expectations though, it will be quickly cancelled and boom more dragons and the old KL set resurrected. Either way HBO will bleed this dry, I think your expectation of a spin off being allowed to exist on its own for 7-8 yrs is wishful thinking, I bet you they will green light a second spin off a year after the first airs, will premiere 2-3 years after the series premiere of Age of Heroes. Also GOT season 1 cost between $50-$60 million per season, the budget increased with the ratings and dvd sales until the current $100 million per season price tag started in season 6.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 10, 2018 18:13:33 GMT -5
A year or two after the first one airs, even if its a moderate success? One year is not enough. And we don't even know that this new show is going to air every year like GoT did in the past. Westworld model is far more likely IMO. D&D knew they would be able to finish GoT only after the success of S3. I don't know how many seasons Goldman has in mind, but I think it will take several seasons to show that her story is successful enough, that people care about the characters and their arcs. From the premise of the show it sounds it will be even bigger in scale than GoT. That's a lot of money. HBO won't gamble with this. They've got lots of money to play with. This new show is not going to get the same treatment GOT got or Westworld for that matter. It's based on a now very popular IP, they have big expectations for this, and it better perform. The only advantage HBO has is the IP-they can keep drawing on this world to create new content. They will not be precious with GOT, they will make as many spin offs as they can afford and rake in as much cash as they can before killing it. It's the story of all successful franchises.
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Post by archanabrownwalker on Jun 11, 2018 13:27:46 GMT -5
All of you keep arguing and i will read all your juicy arguments. But i am just too happy to finally see the Long Night in all its glory on screen.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 11, 2018 19:18:59 GMT -5
io9.gizmodo.com/george-r-r-martin-says-three-other-game-of-thrones-pre-1826730596I think the key phrase is "active development". George is no dummy, he knows how Hollywood works and he wants that paper. I remember reading he makes something like $10million/yr on residuals from HBO. Of course he wants that gravy train to keep on rolling and so does HBO. My prediction, second spin-off premieres 1-2 years after the first one airs. HBO is not gonna slow down with this cash cow, they will make us all sick of GOT.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 11, 2018 19:22:11 GMT -5
I wonder which prequel idea was rejected?
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Post by TheArchmaester on Jun 11, 2018 21:17:41 GMT -5
Honestly, I think there's a high chance this prequel is a spectacular failure in terms of audience interest, even though I find it really interesting.
This isn't at all like the superhero franchises, which follow the same group of characters over and over again. Nor is it like The Hobbit, which shares plenty of characters with LotR.
This Long Night prequel is like doing some esoteric segment from The Silmarillion, or a movie set in Superman's planet five thousand years before Superman is born. Most people wouldn't care... it doesn't really scream "mass appeal". It probably doesn't even have the main element from GoT which is the politics and the scheming.
If they were solely after the money, Marvel-style, the smart thing would be to do an Arya spin-off, a sequel or a Robert's Rebellion series. But it sounds like they're actually taking a risk with this (which is a good thing). The risk being that large audiences will skip it, even if the quality is good.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 11, 2018 21:44:13 GMT -5
Honestly, I think there's a high chance this prequel is a spectacular failure in terms of audience interest, even though I find it really interesting. This isn't at all like the superhero franchises, which follow the same group of characters over and over again. Nor is it like The Hobbit, which shares plenty of characters with LotR. This Long Night prequel is like doing some esoteric segment from The Silmarillion, or a movie set in Superman's planet five thousand years before Superman is born. Most people wouldn't care... it doesn't really scream "mass appeal". It probably doesn't even have the main element from GoT which is the politics and the scheming. If they were solely after the money, Marvel-style, the smart thing would be to do an Arya spin-off, a sequel or a Robert's Rebellion series. But it sounds like they're actually taking a risk with this (which is a good thing). The risk being that large audiences will skip it, even if the quality is good. It's a gamble, but any spin-off is at this point. The politics and scheming could be a main part of the series, only now you have COTF added to the mix. HBO doesn't have much choice at this point, both the nature of the IP and current climate/trend in Hollywood of producing multiple content off a successful IP pushes them in this direction. GOT is not LOTR only because its not for kids, no one is reading GOT to their children, who will have seminal memories and pass it down to their kids. It's an ADULT series (which has yet to finish); people will still be reading the series 30 years from now of course, but not like LOTR which has been passed down 3 generations now? If it had insane violence, incest and graphic sex would that be the case? Not a fair comparison. I think a Robert's Rebellion series while enticing might be more of a risk because we know the main players and we know how it ends, much more than we know anything about the long night. Rebellion could work as a stand alone movie, or part of an anthology (I bet you that is one of the pilots being developed), but as a series running for multiple seasons? It's hard to invest years on a story you know the ending to, but I'm sure its been done before successfully in various mediums. Dance of Dragons prequel also has issues; its pluses are recognizable names (houses), politics, personal drama, scheming, civil war and oh yeah dragons (which like it or not have become synonymous with GOT). Drawbacks however are not good, for one thing it would be hella expensive, none of the main characters are likable hero types and the story seems a bit short for a full on series. But I wouldn't be surprised if this one was in development as well.
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Post by archanabrownwalker on Jun 12, 2018 12:15:05 GMT -5
I wonder which prequel idea was rejected? The Doom maybe. Even though it would have been an obvious choice, for budget reasons it has a high chance of getting rejected or postponed till this prequel succeeds.
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Post by TheArchmaester on Jun 12, 2018 17:40:39 GMT -5
Honestly, I think there's a high chance this prequel is a spectacular failure in terms of audience interest, even though I find it really interesting. This isn't at all like the superhero franchises, which follow the same group of characters over and over again. Nor is it like The Hobbit, which shares plenty of characters with LotR. This Long Night prequel is like doing some esoteric segment from The Silmarillion, or a movie set in Superman's planet five thousand years before Superman is born. Most people wouldn't care... it doesn't really scream "mass appeal". It probably doesn't even have the main element from GoT which is the politics and the scheming. If they were solely after the money, Marvel-style, the smart thing would be to do an Arya spin-off, a sequel or a Robert's Rebellion series. But it sounds like they're actually taking a risk with this (which is a good thing). The risk being that large audiences will skip it, even if the quality is good. It's a gamble, but any spin-off is at this point. The politics and scheming could be a main part of the series, only now you have COTF added to the mix. HBO doesn't have much choice at this point, both the nature of the IP and current climate/trend in Hollywood of producing multiple content off a successful IP pushes them in this direction. GOT is not LOTR only because its not for kids, no one is reading GOT to their children, who will have seminal memories and pass it down to their kids. It's an ADULT series (which has yet to finish); people will still be reading the series 30 years from now of course, but not like LOTR which has been passed down 3 generations now? If it had insane violence, incest and graphic sex would that be the case? Not a fair comparison. I think a Robert's Rebellion series while enticing might be more of a risk because we know the main players and we know how it ends, much more than we know anything about the long night. Rebellion could work as a stand alone movie, or part of an anthology (I bet you that is one of the pilots being developed), but as a series running for multiple seasons? It's hard to invest years on a story you know the ending to, but I'm sure its been done before successfully in various mediums. Dance of Dragons prequel also has issues; its pluses are recognizable names (houses), politics, personal drama, scheming, civil war and oh yeah dragons (which like it or not have become synonymous with GOT). Drawbacks however are not good, for one thing it would be hella expensive, none of the main characters are likable hero types and the story seems a bit short for a full on series. But I wouldn't be surprised if this one was in development as well. Oh I'm definitely with you re: Robert's Rebellion. I think it would've been really boring... but I also think it would have been an assured success if you want viewers above all. I guess time will tell. I hope they tell a good story whatever the prequel is.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 12, 2018 22:54:25 GMT -5
It's a gamble, but any spin-off is at this point. The politics and scheming could be a main part of the series, only now you have COTF added to the mix. HBO doesn't have much choice at this point, both the nature of the IP and current climate/trend in Hollywood of producing multiple content off a successful IP pushes them in this direction. GOT is not LOTR only because its not for kids, no one is reading GOT to their children, who will have seminal memories and pass it down to their kids. It's an ADULT series (which has yet to finish); people will still be reading the series 30 years from now of course, but not like LOTR which has been passed down 3 generations now? If it had insane violence, incest and graphic sex would that be the case? Not a fair comparison. I think a Robert's Rebellion series while enticing might be more of a risk because we know the main players and we know how it ends, much more than we know anything about the long night. Rebellion could work as a stand alone movie, or part of an anthology (I bet you that is one of the pilots being developed), but as a series running for multiple seasons? It's hard to invest years on a story you know the ending to, but I'm sure its been done before successfully in various mediums. Dance of Dragons prequel also has issues; its pluses are recognizable names (houses), politics, personal drama, scheming, civil war and oh yeah dragons (which like it or not have become synonymous with GOT). Drawbacks however are not good, for one thing it would be hella expensive, none of the main characters are likable hero types and the story seems a bit short for a full on series. But I wouldn't be surprised if this one was in development as well. Oh I'm definitely with you re: Robert's Rebellion. I think it would've been really boring... but I also think it would have been an assured success if you want viewers above all. I guess time will tell. I hope they tell a good story whatever the prequel is. That's what I thought as well. Go with the familiar. I'm now coming around to the anthology series as a serious contender. Like AHS or ACS each season is its own contained story. You could tell the Dance of Dragons, Blackfyre Rebellion, and Robert's Rebellion in 10 episodes each. In terms of budget they could treat it like season 2, lots of politics and one big battle per season.
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Post by daeronthegood on Jun 12, 2018 22:55:10 GMT -5
I wonder which prequel idea was rejected? The Doom maybe. Even though it would have been an obvious choice, for budget reasons it has a high chance of getting rejected or postponed till this prequel succeeds. I agree. Part of the allure of Valyria is the mystery. Prefer it stay that way.
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Post by sercreighton on Jun 23, 2018 0:09:36 GMT -5
I'm sure there are people in HBO who will be making that argument. The counter argument will be look at Marvel/NetflixWhy put all your eggs into one show when you have an entire world with thousands of years of history to draw from? Also where are the motherfukin dragons? Because this show is extremely expensive. They can't create 5 show with the same production quality that audence expects from GoT. They need this new show to be popular. And it won't be if we have GoT fatigue. Marvel did't create any show that had the kind of succes HBO wants. Only one thing matters and that's money, that's the buisness they are in. What is going on in media these days is aquisition of content and what you can use it for. The Netflix model, everyone including HBO is following suit. You got a property, you don't just let it sit because someone else will buy it in a heart beat. HBO is going to have to expand or be swallowed, they are already in the midst of being absorbed by another company or their parent company is. As for the age of heroes, it's going to have its similarities to the current series but it's far less defined. Probably be darker, rougher, more brutal. But also probably more magic, a different sort of magic. No Dragons or Targs, well maybe they can always work that in if they want. Given its the rise of the Others, Will it also be the orgin of the NK? Because history says no. Though I would like to see not only a female WW but also something closer to the books version of them and I want them to speak. I mean imagine if what we see with the NK is what a corrupted Other looks like. I think without question we get Lann and Bran. If we get the Grey King we get a red Priest, we should get Garth as well. The founding of the Night Watch. Going to need some female characters as well, I assume they will be borrowing names from existing characters to fill out the cast. I wonder if they will take another shot at Wargs. D&D seemed to just dump them. Bolton's hunting Starks. Martin hinted that Dragons used to exist in Westeros, so who knows what we might see there. I really hope to see house Dayne and the real Dawn, not that cheap low grade steel knock off on the show. Far fewer castles and more long halls, well at least that's how it should look it's the age of the first men, so essentially the Wildlings at their peak. And lots of blood magic. It shouldn't be nearly as political as Thrones, as the 7 Kingdoms are still seperate and the ancient houses are just starting to be created. The last Kingdom, Vikings, you can do a show like this on a budget that's proven. Thrones just used massive filming crews and tons of location filming, multiple crews, multiple locations tons of extras. The age of heroes isn't bigger than the thrones era, it's smaller. First men beat back the WW and then got rolled by the Andals. Valyria rolled everyone. Aegon took Westeros with 3 Dragons, now imagine 300. That was an era of power. I think smaller, darker, more brutal and primative could work. The political nature thrones began with, had its peak years ago. Trying to play Cersei off as a genius polotician by saying gosh she's so great at polotics doesn't really pass the smell test. She is simply in a survival modes and will take anyone she can get. Really it's become more about the Great War, and the unity of ice and fire. Jon and Dany played a little at polotics but every viewer knew where that was going. The dominos were set up a long time ago, now we just watch them fall. Smaller cast, smaller battles, bigger parts. Without a doubt I think they will move away from the big ensemble cast to one with a traditional lead male and female. Who knows we could see all kinds of things, maybe back in the day the Dothraki were ruled by female warrior women or something. It's 8305 years ago and nobody really took good notes. Anything could be going on. I will happily give it a shot, I gave Deadwood a shot and was happy I did even if the series wasn't finished. HBO is pretty good at The TV thing so I give them the benifit of the doubt. I don't think they would do it if they thought they couldn't. I would like to see the Skin Trade get made into a mini serie or movie as well.
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Post by sercreighton on Jun 23, 2018 0:32:03 GMT -5
One last thing, HBO has never had a show like Thrones. Most of their shows are focused on the US, and appeal to US audiences, Rome was an earlier attempt to enter the global market and it failed. Thrones is everything Romes wasn't to them, it's their one and only Global franchise, and it's the mother load. It doesn t matter if it's ratings in the US are lower, not when it's selling all over the world.
Expect young beautiful people, with some vets throne in just like thrones and HBO will find a way to right stories for the ASOIAF world. Look at Kit and Emilia, whenever they go on location, it's like the friggin Beatles landed in some countries. There is a formula there, Azur and Nissa, Bran and Lann, don't they sound like they are brothers? Twists and turns and mysteries. Maybe see some places we have not like Asshai, maybe Nissa is a Red Priest or a Shadow Binder. Who knows, it could be good. You could also do some mini series, and made for HBO movies with the material.
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