Post by dariopatke on Jul 26, 2016 18:43:20 GMT -5
About two months ago I got an idea that it was Varys who poisoned Tywinin SoS. I talked about this with Quiet Islanders, but I am curious to her what others think about this.
Lets begin!
I think we can agree that something was wrong with Tywin's body and he was probably poisoned. There is one really important reason why I don't think it is Oberyn and it is the fact that Doran said he worked closely with Oberyn and he also said he wants to take everything Tywin holds dear before killing him. If Tywin died an hour before Tyrion killed him he would die as a happy man: Joff is dead and Tommen will probably be good King, he has good people around him, his son is back and Lannisters are the most powerful family in 7K. One might think they would want to kill Jaime (or let him die fighting some unexpirienced men), drive Cersei mad, kill Kevan and Tommen and THEN kill Tywin.
Now enough about Oberyn, lets see other people in KL. Obviously no one from Lannisters did it and Pycelle, too. Tyrells didn't do it (that Gardener coin was surely planted so they were not involved and Tywin is guarantee of their alliance, they saw Cersei is not the sharpest tool). LF is out of town so it leaves only one man with true intention to kill Tywin, Varys.
Varys let Realm go bankrupt because he obviously knew everything LF does. He knew what he was doing, at leasst about money because if he listened what Hand does he surely listened to everyone else. He needed peace in that period and financially ruining Realm is only and best thing he can do at that time. Obviously, money is not problem of Aegon (Illirio). Why did Varys lobby to let Ned to NW? Because he knew Ned is honorable and he knew Robb would communicate with his father after he comes to Wall and honorable Ned would see Aegon as rightful heir to the Throne and advice Robb to join his cause. Why did Yoren save Arya? Gratitude. Everything Varys did for house Stark and the fact Aegon is the heir might bring North to his cause. Allowing Robb to go south and fight Lannisters would probably end with one crushing defeat from Tywin (Robb was a surprise to everyone, no one expected him to be good military leader).
Now lets go to Tywins poisoning. Why would Varys want Tywin dead? Well, same thing with Kevan. At that moment King's peace was restored, only Stannis od Dragonstone, Blackfish in Riverrun and some Ironborn were problem. This were minor issues and they could easily be solved, he needed huge conflict because Tyrells are too big faction to let them be on side of Lannisters. This will be important when he planted coin to separate Lannisters and Tyrells, if Cersei never made mistake with HS, I am sure Varys will come up with something to divide them. Obviously one of his little birds poisoned Tywin and this could be done easily. It was plan to accuse Oberyn of poisoning because of obvious reasons and divide Martells from Lannisters (they were in poor relations but this would seal the deal) but Oberyn became champion of Tyrion and Varys had to make a backup plan.
First scenario is that Oberyn wins and he would be even more suspicious because Gregor confessed. Second scenario is if Oberyn loses. Now this is tricky because people would still assume it was Oberyn before he died, but this would raise a question and certanly someone would say poison is weapon of women and eunuchs and Varys might be suspect so he needed to make sure someone else kills Tywin, good idea is his son (Tywin hated him his entire life and he did sentence him to die).
How did he make Tyrion kill Tywin? Lets begin. He didnt know Jaime would piss Tyrion off but he didnt need that because Tyrion was already pissed on Tywin. Varys did notice Tyrion was angry, which we see in their conversation. Varys did try do escalate situation and finally he lead Tyrion under Tower of the Hand. How did he know Tyrion will know this is under ToH, because Shae told him that. Shae was his agent and she explained this to Tyrion, probably Varys let her to tell him that. Now Varys was certain Tyrion knew this but even if he wasn't we would have hinted him that somehow. Later he did try to talk him out of this but was not honest and he said it just to be said, he knew Tyrion won't listen him. After he did kill Kevan for doing exact same thing Tywin did, bring Lannisters and Tyrells to common cause. Why does he need to break Lannister-Tyrell alliance? Because he wants Tyrells to join Aegon and marriage of Marge and Tommen stops them.
To wrap things up: there was only one person in KL who wanted Tywin dead and it is Varys (of course Oberyn wanted too, but he didn't want him dead YET). He did kill Kevan simillar to how Tywin died (crossbow), had motives and two people died after they did something that hurts cause of Aegon (King's peace and Lannister- Tyrell alliance) and after he saw a possibility of blaming someone else; Tywin with Oberyn and after Tyrion and Kevan with either Cersei or Tyrion (Kevan thought Tyrion shot him).
Lets begin!
I think we can agree that something was wrong with Tywin's body and he was probably poisoned. There is one really important reason why I don't think it is Oberyn and it is the fact that Doran said he worked closely with Oberyn and he also said he wants to take everything Tywin holds dear before killing him. If Tywin died an hour before Tyrion killed him he would die as a happy man: Joff is dead and Tommen will probably be good King, he has good people around him, his son is back and Lannisters are the most powerful family in 7K. One might think they would want to kill Jaime (or let him die fighting some unexpirienced men), drive Cersei mad, kill Kevan and Tommen and THEN kill Tywin.
Now enough about Oberyn, lets see other people in KL. Obviously no one from Lannisters did it and Pycelle, too. Tyrells didn't do it (that Gardener coin was surely planted so they were not involved and Tywin is guarantee of their alliance, they saw Cersei is not the sharpest tool). LF is out of town so it leaves only one man with true intention to kill Tywin, Varys.
Varys let Realm go bankrupt because he obviously knew everything LF does. He knew what he was doing, at leasst about money because if he listened what Hand does he surely listened to everyone else. He needed peace in that period and financially ruining Realm is only and best thing he can do at that time. Obviously, money is not problem of Aegon (Illirio). Why did Varys lobby to let Ned to NW? Because he knew Ned is honorable and he knew Robb would communicate with his father after he comes to Wall and honorable Ned would see Aegon as rightful heir to the Throne and advice Robb to join his cause. Why did Yoren save Arya? Gratitude. Everything Varys did for house Stark and the fact Aegon is the heir might bring North to his cause. Allowing Robb to go south and fight Lannisters would probably end with one crushing defeat from Tywin (Robb was a surprise to everyone, no one expected him to be good military leader).
Now lets go to Tywins poisoning. Why would Varys want Tywin dead? Well, same thing with Kevan. At that moment King's peace was restored, only Stannis od Dragonstone, Blackfish in Riverrun and some Ironborn were problem. This were minor issues and they could easily be solved, he needed huge conflict because Tyrells are too big faction to let them be on side of Lannisters. This will be important when he planted coin to separate Lannisters and Tyrells, if Cersei never made mistake with HS, I am sure Varys will come up with something to divide them. Obviously one of his little birds poisoned Tywin and this could be done easily. It was plan to accuse Oberyn of poisoning because of obvious reasons and divide Martells from Lannisters (they were in poor relations but this would seal the deal) but Oberyn became champion of Tyrion and Varys had to make a backup plan.
First scenario is that Oberyn wins and he would be even more suspicious because Gregor confessed. Second scenario is if Oberyn loses. Now this is tricky because people would still assume it was Oberyn before he died, but this would raise a question and certanly someone would say poison is weapon of women and eunuchs and Varys might be suspect so he needed to make sure someone else kills Tywin, good idea is his son (Tywin hated him his entire life and he did sentence him to die).
How did he make Tyrion kill Tywin? Lets begin. He didnt know Jaime would piss Tyrion off but he didnt need that because Tyrion was already pissed on Tywin. Varys did notice Tyrion was angry, which we see in their conversation. Varys did try do escalate situation and finally he lead Tyrion under Tower of the Hand. How did he know Tyrion will know this is under ToH, because Shae told him that. Shae was his agent and she explained this to Tyrion, probably Varys let her to tell him that. Now Varys was certain Tyrion knew this but even if he wasn't we would have hinted him that somehow. Later he did try to talk him out of this but was not honest and he said it just to be said, he knew Tyrion won't listen him. After he did kill Kevan for doing exact same thing Tywin did, bring Lannisters and Tyrells to common cause. Why does he need to break Lannister-Tyrell alliance? Because he wants Tyrells to join Aegon and marriage of Marge and Tommen stops them.
To wrap things up: there was only one person in KL who wanted Tywin dead and it is Varys (of course Oberyn wanted too, but he didn't want him dead YET). He did kill Kevan simillar to how Tywin died (crossbow), had motives and two people died after they did something that hurts cause of Aegon (King's peace and Lannister- Tyrell alliance) and after he saw a possibility of blaming someone else; Tywin with Oberyn and after Tyrion and Kevan with either Cersei or Tyrion (Kevan thought Tyrion shot him).
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